Analysis of Financial Sustainability Indicators and their Reflection on the "Economic Cycle" in Iraq for the Period (2004-2022)

Abstract

The study investigates the impact of "financial sustainability" indicators on Iraq's "economic cycle" from 2004 to 2022. It hypothesizes that changes in these indicators affect the "economic cycle" both positively and negatively, with varying degrees in the short and long term, depending on the country's economic policies. Using the ARDL model for analysis, the results reveal a significant positive relationship between GDP and indicators such as the "public revenues"-to-expenditures ratio (X1), the "public debt"-to-GDP ratio (X2), and the tax gap index (X3). Conversely, a significant negative relationship was found with the "public revenues"-to-GDP ratio (X4), the oil revenues-to-"public revenues" ratio (X5), and the external debt-to-exports ratio (X6). The study recommends that fiscal policies be designed to counteract "economic cycle"s, encouraging austerity and investment during booms and expansionary measures during recessions to stabilize the economy and promote "financial sustainability